Will this market resolve YES? This market will resolve YES if its probability is above 1% at April 1. 13:00 CET

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if its probability is strictly above 1% at April 1, 2026, 13:00 CET. The probability will be determined by the market's displayed odds at that exact timestamp. If the probability is 1% or below, the market resolves NO.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 57% chance (4 traders, as of Mar 27, 2026).

Resolution Criteria

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