Will US total CO2 emissions be below 5 billion tons in 2023?
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Mar 31
46%
chance

5.12 billion in 2021. 4.82 billion in 2020. 5.35 billion in 2019.

As estimated on our world in data: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-co2-fossil-plus-land-use?country=~USA

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Will resolve when data released.

predicts NO

Last updated

December 5, 2023

Next expected update

December 2024

So will be a while before this can be resolved

predicts NO

Prior years after Dec 5 2023 update show

2019 5.37

2020 4.83

2021 5.16

2022 5.20


Clearly the most major effect is a covid dip in 2020 and recovery not a peak oil/coal decline with bumps along the way. So still recovering and getting back to new peaks certainly in oil and gas consumption so I expect higher than 5.2. But I could be wrong: maybe coal replacement with renewables has bigger effect than I expect?

Something I learned recently: Emissions figures get revised by several %, sometimes. I did a presentation on climate change to a local community group 2 years ago, with the intention to go back each year and revisit to see how we were doing on the path to decarbonization each year to 2030. Missed doing it in 2022, but did an update this year. Every single one of the sources I used in 2021, when I checked them again for updated numbers, the numbers I'd quoted for 2021 had changed, mostly gone down.

Looks like the numbers for US from OWID you're quoting for this question are more stable than the world and Canada numbers I was working with, but still, might end up that 2023 is close to 5 GT, and jiggles above or below that level as numbers get revised.

@equinoxhq Thanks for sharing. I think I will go with the initially released numbers just so that the market can be resolved in a somewhat timely manner.