Which books will be among the "100 Best Books of the 21st Century"?
Basic
47
48k
resolved Jul 12
Resolved
YES
A Manual for Cleaning Women by Lucia Berlin
Resolved
YES
The Sympathizer by Viet Thanh Nguyen (2015)
Resolved
YES
Far From the Tree by Andrew Solomon (2012)
Resolved
YES
Never Let Me Go by Kazuo Ishiguro
Resolved
YES
The road by Cormac McCarthy
Resolved
YES
The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay by Michael Chabon
Resolved
YES
The Year of Magical Thinking by Joan Didion
Resolved
YES
Pachinko by Min Jin Lee (2020)
Resolved
YES
The Underground Railroad by Colson Whitehead
Resolved
YES
The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen
Resolved
YES
Wolf Hall by Mantel
Resolved
YES
Outline by Rachel Cusk (2014)
Resolved
YES
White Teeth by Zadie Smith
Resolved
YES
When We Cease to Understand the World by Benjamín Labatut (2021)
Resolved
YES
Cloud Atlas by David Mitchell
Resolved
YES
The Goldfinch by Donna Tartt
Resolved
YES
A Visit from The Goon Squad by Jennifer Egan (2011)
Resolved
YES
Atonement by Ian McEwan (2001)
Resolved
YES
Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates
Resolved
YES
Nickel and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich

Resolves YES if the book is listed in the New York Times "100 Best Books of the 21st Century" series. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/books/best-books-21st-century.html

Resolves No otherwise

Their methodology was: "In collaboration with the Upshot — the department at The Times focused on data and analytical journalism — the Book Review sent a survey to hundreds of novelists, nonfiction writers, academics, book editors, journalists, critics, publishers, poets, translators, booksellers, librarians and other literary luminaries, asking them to pick their 10 best books of the 21st century.

We let them each define “best” in their own way. For some, this simply meant “favorite.” For others, it meant books that would endure for generations.

The only rules: Any book chosen had to be published in the United States, in English, on or after Jan. 1, 2000. (Yes, translations counted!)

After casting their ballots, respondents were given the option to answer a series of prompts where they chose their preferred book between two randomly selected titles. We combined data from these prompts with the vote tallies to create the list of the top 100 books."

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@DismalScientist, the book When we cease to understand the world is also in the list (82).

reposted

Some EA/rationalism-adjacent option suggestions in case anyone can afford the creation costs:

  • The Life You Can Save by Peter Singer (2009)

  • Animal Liberation Now by Peter Singer (2023)

  • The Precipice by Toby Ord (2020)

  • Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom (2014)

  • Doing Good Better by William MacAskill (2015)

  • Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark (2017)

  • Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky (2015)

  • Rationality: From AI to Zombies aka The Sequences by Eliezer Yudkowsky (2015)

  • Inadequate Equilibria by Eliezer Yudkowsky (2017)

  • Unsong by Scott Alexander (2017)

bought Ṁ10 Answer #atwl23e4o0 NO

This list is very biased towards fiction, apparently. So the odds of nonfiction are smaller than the NYT best of the year, and probably no literary critic would pick those.

Good suggestions, though! I read Singer and MacAskill.

bought Ṁ5 Never Let Me Go by K... YES

nice market idea! 📚

bought Ṁ50 Never Let Me Go by K... NO

The wrong Ishiguro book (Never Let Me Go) was on here, so I added the correct option (Klara and the Sun, of course). I think Ishiguro is a bit overrated, but he is excellent at his best.

bought Ṁ5 The Year of Magical ... NO

Is there a non-paywall way to see which are already on the list so far?

I asked claude to extract the list from a saved html and got this (did not double check it but I think it is right): Here are the book titles ranked from 81 to 100 extracted from the file:

81. Pulphead by John Jeremiah Sullivan

82. Hurricane Season by Fernanda Melchor

83. When We Cease to Understand the World by Benjamín Labatut

84. The Emperor of All Maladies by Siddhartha Mukherjee

85. Pastoralia by George Saunders

86. Frederick Douglass by David W. Blight

87. Detransition, Baby by Torrey Peters

88. The Collected Stories of Lydia Davis

89. The Return by Hisham Matar

90. The Sympathizer by Viet Thanh Nguyen

91. The Human Stain by Philip Roth

92. The Days of Abandonment by Elena Ferrante

93. Station Eleven by Emily St. John Mandel

94. On Beauty by Zadie Smith

95. Bring Up the Bodies by Hilary Mantel

96. Wayward Lives, Beautiful Experiments by Saidiya Hartman

97. Men We Reaped by Jesmyn Ward

98. Bel Canto by Ann Patchett

99. How to Be Both by Ali Smith

100. Tree of Smoke by Denis Johnson

Thanks :)

Based on the current odds all suddenly being super high/low, has the full list just been released?

bought Ṁ250 Answer #6wcpc47ukk YES

Best market idea in ages…

As a layman, besides Gone Girl I don't happen to recognise the ones you added and bet to over 90%, what's your reasoning for such high confidence in them?

It doesn’t take much to get the probability high, so if you bet in a name, it automatically increases the odds. Maybe there is not enough contrarians to make this market viable

I didn’t bet that much Mana to raise the odds… a lot of them are books I read and loved… some heart bets over head bets maybe… like not sure sally Rooney will get in but it was a good book, Cormac McCarthy I voted for the road but maybe no country for old men will get in? Same as Colm Tobin maybe the master will get in the top 100 instead of Brooklyn! So many choices so I added ones I like. I loved 1Q84 but not many else did…

Ah, thanks for explaining :)

great market idea!