https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1812251989759418579
Resolves YES if a bullet or bullet-like projectile hit Trump's body anywhere but the ear.
NOTE #1: I will share my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object. If I am unsure on the closing date or after hearing trader's objections, I would extend the deadline to allow more evidence to arrive.
NOTE #2: If I am unsure AND it is highly unlikely new evidence will arrive, I would decide between resolving based on a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current % correcting for any market manipulation e.g. someone betting a lot to move the market at the last second) OR resolving based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking an AI forecaster). Please share in the comments if you think KBC or one of these external forecast options would be better. Planning to update NOTE #2 once I decide which option is better for the health of the market.
1,000
3.00@traders I plan to resolve NO tomorrow night. I am sharing my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object.
I am resolving NO based on the following evidence:
FBI statement: “What struck former President Trump in the ear was a bullet, whether whole or fragmented into smaller pieces, fired from the deceased subject’s rifle,” the agency said in an emailed statement sent to The Hill Friday.” https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4795681-fbi-confirms-trump-struck-by-bullet/
There is no mention of injuries to other body parts.
New York Times analysis of the audio and visuals:
Analysis by experts of the audio and visuals suggest that the first bullet clipped Trump's ear and landed in the bleachers. There is no mention of the bullet hitting other body parts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/us/politics/trump-shooter-bullet-trajectory-ear.html
Testimony of witnesses
Both Trump and his doctor have consistently claimed that he was shot in the ear (and nowhere else). https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112782066045321247
It seems like it would be in their interest to mention a second wound if there was one.
Media consensus
Media organizations and fact checkers from the left (NYT, the Post, Snopes) and the right (Fox news, the Daily Mail) only mention him being shot in the ear. They do not mention him being shot in any other body parts.
@traders Extending until July 30th since I am traveling. By that time, I will be back home and able to double-check the evidence before making a final resolution.
Apologies for the delay in responding. I would count grazing his cheek. I would not count the skin immediately around his ear. Sorry that this is a little vague. I can clarify further if it is decision-relevant for you.