NYT: “It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear.”
Resolves YES if the Trump shooter acted alone. Resolves NO if others knew about the plan and aided/abetted the Trump shooter.
NOTE #1: I will share my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object. If I am unsure on the closing date or after hearing trader's objections, I would extend the deadline to allow more evidence to arrive.
NOTE #2: If I am unsure AND it is highly unlikely new evidence will arrive, I would decide between resolving based on a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current % correcting for any market manipulation e.g. someone betting a lot to move the market at the last second) OR resolving based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking an AI forecaster). Please share in the comments if you think KBC or one of these external forecast options would be better. Planning to update NOTE #2 once I decide which option is better for the health of the market.
Related questions
@DismalScientist How does it resolve if another person had prior knowledge of his explosive devices but not the shooting itself?
"NO if others knew about the plan and aided/abetted the Trump shooter"
once there is confirmed to be a single shooter then the only other NO resolution is from aiding and abetting.
in PA
The elements necessary to convict under aiding and abetting theory are:
1. That the accused had specific intent to facilitate the commission of a crime by another;
2. That the accused had the requisite intent of the underlying substantive offense;
3. That the accused assisted or participated in the commission of the underlying substantive offense; and
4. That someone committed the underlying offense.