If Biden does not drop out, this resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if the % chance of Trump winning in this market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104) one week after Biden drops out is lower than it was before he drops out. Resolves NO otherwise.

I will define "before he drops out" as the last moment that this market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719604323939) is below 94%. I will define one week after he drops out as exactly 7 days after the moment "before he drops out". I will wait until he officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn or exits the race since only then can I identify the last moment that the market was below 94%.

Basically, the goal of this market is to see whether the market thinks Democrats would do better if Biden was not the nominee. I duplicated a similar market about winning the election. I am focusing on an intermediate outcome that should be easier to predict. As the author of the duplicated market notes, this is inspired by one of Robin Hanson's ideas for conditional prediction markets where there would be a conditional market on a company's stock price if they fired their CEO.

Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden does not drop out since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.