If Biden‘s odds of dropping out in this market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719604323939), never rises by over 30% from the beginning (12 AM Pacific Time) to the end of a calendar day ( 11:59 PM PT) after June 29th, 2024 (market creation), resolves NA.

Resolves YES if the % chance of Trump winning in this market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104) at the beginning of the first day after June 29th with the 30% increase in Biden’s odds of dropping out (12 am PT on that day) is lower than at the end of the day (11:59 PM PT on that day). Resolves NO otherwise.

Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden's odds of dropping out never increase by over 30% in a single day since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.