Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if RAM (DRAM) prices are lower at the end of 2026 than they are on the date this market is created. Resolution will be determined by comparing average retail prices for standard DDR4 and DDR5 memory modules (64GB kits) across major retailers including Newegg, Amazon, and Corsair's official store. The resolution will use the lowest average price found across these retailers on the market creation date versus December 31, 2026. If prices are equal or higher on December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.

Background

Global DRAM prices increased by more than 180 percent in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025. RAM prices—especially DDR5—have increased by over 100% in some cases compared to the previous year. The voracious demand for HBM by hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon has forced the three biggest memory manufacturers to pivot their limited cleanroom space and capital expenditure towards higher margin enterprise-grade components. Memory manufacturers themselves expect the supply-demand imbalance to persist at least through the first half of 2026, with Team Group noting the imbalance is expected to persist through at least mid-2026.

Considerations

Scenario analyses suggest overall DRAM prices peaking in Q1 2026, with meaningful normalization not expected until late 2027 or early 2028. Memory industry analysts suggest that only in late 2027 might we see a significant downward correction in RAM prices, by which time multiple new fabs should be contributing and the current AI-driven demand frenzy could level off. Previous memory "supercycles" such as the 2017–2018 boom were followed by steep price crashes within ~2 years once oversupply was reached.