Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a CEO of a major technology company (defined as a company with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion or annual revenue exceeding $50 billion at the time of their departure) steps down, resigns, retires, or is forced out before January 1, 2027. The departure must be announced publicly via official company press release, SEC filing, or major news outlets.

"Major tech CEO" includes leaders of companies in software, semiconductors, cloud computing, AI, e-commerce, telecommunications, and related technology sectors. Examples include but are not limited to: Apple, Microsoft, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Oracle, Salesforce, and similar tier companies.

The market resolves NO if no such departure occurs by December 31, 2026.

Background

CEO departures at publicly traded U.S. firms hit a record high of 327 in the first 11 months of 2024, up from 300 in all of 2023. The technology sector accounted for 208 CEO exits in 2024, reflecting broader trends of leadership turnover. Notable recent examples include Pat Gelsinger, who was forced out as Intel CEO after the board lost confidence in his turnaround plans. Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan stepped down after more than a year on the job, with Brian Niccol, the chairman and CEO of Chipotle, becoming Starbucks' new CEO.

Considerations

The definition of "major tech CEO" is critical for resolution. Companies must meet the size threshold at the time of departure. Interim CEOs or acting CEOs count as departures. Lateral moves within the same company (e.g., transitioning to executive chair or board role) count as stepping down from the CEO position. Deaths in office do not count as stepping down.