Will I test positive for COVID tomorrow?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ259resolved Jul 10
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I have been in an environment with similar or lower COVID rates to base Alameda County rates. This morning, I took four COVID tests - a rapid antigen test which was extremely faintly positive, a Cue test which was positive, a rapid test (swabbing my throat and nose) that was negative, and a Cue test that was negative (in sequence, within 2 hours of each other). This market resolved YES if I test positive on either a Cue or antigen test tomorrow (I will take both), and NO otherwise.
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cEohkb9mqbc3JwSLW/how-much-should-you-update-on-a-covid-test-result has stats on specificity and sensitivity of different rapid tests, including rapid antigen and rapid NAAT (like Cue).
I recently did a similar set of calculations on this market: https://manifold.markets/jack/does-my-friend-have-covid-mixed-tes