Will I go to high school next year?
17
298
Ṁ221
resolved Aug 14
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to YES if I attend a public or private high school with more than 10 students at the beginning of the next school year, and NO otherwise Context: I'm currently a high school sophomore, considering leaving in order to work on community building and AI work. It seems quite likely to me that I'll end up leaving high school at the end of this year, teaching myself what I would have counterfactually learned in the next four years of schooling. Some clarifications/elaborations (may 17) - I'd work on governance and/or ops for AI safety researchers, not capabilities. - Sorry i mean to say teach myself the things i actually need to know, which is differentially math/science/cs - I'm applying to mlab this summer - I'm applying to college next fall - Currently have the equivalent of a GED, but getting a homeschool diploma is cheap enough that it's probably worth it - I'm starting a work trial to be program director at SERI MATS relatively soon
Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES
This market makes me want to do something similar for college.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
I know you, and I think you and the world will be better off if you don't go to high school. It's a waste of your time. (betting on "you'll be able to Just Make It Happen because you know high school is horrible".)
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Being yes on base rates. US high school seems pretty obnoxious, though. If you have the money you could try UK private school and do A-levels in just the subjects you want. Or some other country that allows lots of specialization at your age.
No here's the play: 1. Get your GED 2. Hang out on a college campus, talk to cool people, sit in on lectures - but don't actually enroll 2.b Alternatively do the autodidact thing 2.c Alternatively do a coding bootcamp (or equivalent) 3. Enter industry Maybe you don't need the GED. College is really expensive! Not worth skipping hs if it means you'd take longer in college. Oh, if you're leaving school early due to short AI timelines - I get the impression that AI safety is more constrained on good ideas rather than grunt labor, so I'd still lean towards exploration
bought Ṁ20 of NO
You should leave. Ignore community building and "important" work, focus on yourself for a few years. Take on a bunch of very short projects that seem interesting. Ask people for simple ideas they would like to see happen but don't have time for and try doing those things. Also, don't bother teaching yourself what you would have counterfactually learned, learn things you actually need to know. Also, consider just applying to college now.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Plz move towards working in AI safety and not capabilities though
Added M$100 liquidity. It sounds like you might be able to do something cool instead of high school, that's awesome. It's hard to imagine a plausible worse use for your time than high school. I really can't be more encouraging of skipping it.

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