Will Russia have a net gain in occupied land in Ukraine during a month, within the next year?
resolved Dec 6

This market will resolve YES if over the course of any month (e.g. January, April or June) within the next year, Russia will have a gained occupied land in Ukraine, more than Ukraine has liberated.

If both Ukraine and Russia will win ground in different areas of the conflict, we will compare gained ground. If Russia gained more ground than it lost, this market will resolve YES.

I will use https://deepstatemap.live/en to assess wins and losses, but am open to other sources if there is a wide consensus between reports. To determine losses and gains, I will compare the first day of the month to the last.

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bought Ṁ1,348 of YES

Sorry for the late resolve. October actually saw a net gain in Russian occupied land in Ukraine. The totals for the 1st and 31st of october were respectively: 108401.58 and 108409.47. With russia gaining a whopping 7.89 square kilometers in October.

bought Ṁ1,024 of YES

Assessment for October?

What-are boundaries of "next year"? 2023-09-01 to 2024-09-01, 2024-01-01 to 2025-01-01, other?

predicted NO

@mxxun a year after market creation, market closes 10-09-2024. I suppose that means essentially september of 2024 wont actually count for this market anymore, since I only look at calendar months for the changes.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@Dennis5a87 So e.g. net gain during Oct. 10 — Nov. 10 would not count, as long as both Oct. 1–31 and Nov. 1–30 are net losses?

predicted NO

@mxxun correct

I would bet on this market, but that map source you are choosing to use for the outcome of this market is incredibly biased. Look at the preview graphic; it alone shows that it is going to be a biased source, as it has a Ukrainian flag logo overlaid on it and it says "news of Russia's war against Ukraine". Regardless of what one's opinion or stance on the conflict might be, this is not the kind of source that should be utilized for a market. If you think there's a lack of appropriate map sources out there to utilize, then you can use the aggregate date from a few different ones, but relying on this one alone seems iffy at best.

@dieselbaby1337 I'm not going to deny that deepstatemap is a pro-ukrainian website. That however does not mean that their maps aren't factual. Differences between credible pro-russian sources (read: non-government) and pro-ukrainian sources has been pretty minimal after the initial Russian offensive. Especially when we're talking about differences over a month like this post. With how much footage we're getting of the actual frontlines, actual advances are virtually impossible to deny.

As I understand deepstatemap is seen as a relatively respected aggregate of open source data to produce a map of the war in Ukraine. If you have a suggestion for a different aggregate to look at, i'm willing to include it for the resolution of this market.

That russian government-affiliated channels might have conflicting views on the conflict and possible Russian or Ukrainian victories is true, but I simply dont care as it is widely accepted they are complete fabrications. If you're looking to include government-affiliated media in the analasys, this market is not for you.

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