What will happen to Bernie's Proposed "Ban ASI" Bill?

Question

Bernie (& Greg Casar) just announced the intention to introduce a bill that would ban the development of ASI. https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-and-temporarily-pause-advanced-ai-development/

Clarifications:

I mean specifically a bill introduced by these two people, with very similar aims as that released in the summary: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Ban-Artificial-Superintelligence-Act-Release-Summary.pdf

If there is a clear answer before Dec 31 2027, I will resolve then

If this exact bill fails, but a very similar one draws inspiration, I will reoslve based on the original bill

For this market, I care only about the bill's continuity as defined by its tracking number. If the wording changes substantially, it's the same bill.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Doesn't pass in House, followed by Doesn't pass in Senate and Unclear by Dec 31 2027 are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Sep 3, 2026).

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