2
Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
9
closes 2030
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See:
https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection
Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or "child success" predictions.
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Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?43%
Will over 10,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?69%
Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?40%
Will more than 50% of humans born before 2023 and still alive by 2050 exist in a biological substrate?80%
Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?49%
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for someone born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally?33%