Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will human genetic enhancement of embryos be legally permitted in at least one country by EOY 2040?
1
Ṁ150Ṁ20
2040
56%
chance

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2041, at least one sovereign nation explicitly legalizes, formally permits, or officially licenses the clinical use of heritable human genome modification (germline editing) specifically for non-medical genetic enhancement (e.g., optimization of cognitive, cosmetic, or physical traits like intelligence, height, or strength).

This market resolves to NO if the clinical practice of genetic embryo modification remains restricted globally to strictly therapeutic purposes (e.g., curing hereditary diseases like Huntington's or Cystic Fibrosis) or remains entirely illegal worldwide.

Resolution will be based on official government publications, statutory text, or major international news and scientific outlets (e.g., Nature, Science, The World Health Organization, Reuters).

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!