Reality.eth is a decentralised mechanism for deciding on answers to questions. It employs a) a real-money game for "betting" on the correct answer and b) if the outcome of this game is unsatisfactory, an arbitration process using the Kleros decentralised court.
One can implement a decentralised resolution mechanism by tentatively resolving to the market price at closing time and optionally escalating to reality.eth and ultimately Kleros in the case of unsatisfactory resolution. For example, see this one. These escalations are undesirable and involve substantial amounts of real money. However, the option of escalation can be a substantial disincentive to attack the simple self-resolution mechanism, and so it can be helpful to secure a market with reality.eth even if we never want to use it.
Does this work? Can a secure appeal system secure a self-resolving market without having to actually make use of the appeal system?
This is a market about whether any reality.eth secured market on Manifold is escalated to the Kleros court. If the reality.eth mechanism is used but resolves before the dispute reaches Kleros, this market resolve no.
I will resolve this market to the best of my judgement. To do this, I will search Manifold on or after Jan 1 2024 for terms like "reality" and "realityeth" to try to catalogue every reality.eth secured market, and assess whether any escalated to Kleros.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน83 | |
| 2 | แน57 | |
| 3 | แน10 | |
| 4 | แน10 | |
| 5 | แน8 |
The only two reality.eth markets I can find are the broiler chicken one (no kleros call) and this one https://manifold.markets/JeanP/will-blast-l2-get-rugged-hacked-or which does not resolve until next year. Resolve negative.
There's only 1 such "reality.eth-secured" market so far (the broiler chicken consumption one), and the complexity and non-time-testedness of the reality.eth mechanism makes me doubt it'll work. That said, I think if someone finds a good source for the chicken consumption figure, then I think the first contestant or so will win (if contesting becomes necessary), and we won't need Kleros.