What will be true about the 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections
Basic
19
3.9k
Jun 16
98%
Turnout will be higher than 50%
95%
One party will win more than 40% of the votes in any one member state
90%
European People's Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) combined gain seats
18%
A party created since the last election will get at least 20 seats
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European People's Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) combined gain seats
bought Ṁ50 European People's Pa... YES

Provisional results have them at 190+136=326 seats, up from 139+169=308 seats.

Wikipedia for 2019 elections says that they won 187+147=334 seats back then: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election

Huh. Weird.

The official EU website gives yet another figure, 176+139=315... ah, you're looking at the initial 2019 results, but they both lost some seats over the course of the 2019-2024 period in various ways without a full general election.

That doesn't explain why adding up the Wikipedia figures gave different results again, but I think 315 is the correct figure?

I extended the close time, looks like elections aren't for a couple more days.

Turnout will be higher than 50%
bought Ṁ10 Turnout will be high... NO

Previous turnout from 1976 to 2019 from Wikipedia:

61.99 58.98 58.41 56.67 49.51 45.47 42.97 42.61 50.66

One party will win more than 40% of the votes in any one member state

How does this deal with the following?

  • elections in Belgium are not nationwide: there are three completely separate elections, with different sets of parties, in each language community (Dutch, French and German). I suggest this question should apply to each of the three elections separately.

  • Ireland, and I think also Malta, use the single transferable vote. Will this question apply to first preferences only?

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