[short fuse] What will Iran’s promised “great surprise tonight” (17 June 2025) turn out to be
0
Ṁ1kresolved Jun 17
ResolvedN/A
17%
1️⃣ Large missile/drone strike on Israel
17%
2️⃣ Nuclear-treaty break / test
17%
3️⃣ High-impact cyber-attack
17%
4️⃣ Direct attack on U.S. military
17%
5️⃣ No substantial action / pure rhetoric
17%
6️⃣ Other first event
The market resolves YES to exactly one option, chosen by the first category in the list whose criteria are met before expiry. If multiple happen simultaneously, use the top-to-bottom priority order.
If an outcome’s threshold is met after another category has already triggered, only the earlier category resolves YES.
If nothing in 1-4 or 6 happens by noon UTC 18 Jun 2025, option 5 wins automatically.
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