Conditional on the Proposed TikTok ban/divestiture becoming law, which party wins the 2024 Election
21
Ṁ1kṀ2.4kresolved Nov 6
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6H
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100%49%
TikTok Bill passes, Republican wins
44%
TikTok Bill passes, Democrat wins
3%
TikTok Bill does not pass, Democrat wins
4%
TikTok Bill does not pass, Republican wins
Will resolve 50/50 between Democrat/Republican if a third party candidate wins.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@ms This was created because someone told me they thought that if Biden signs the TikTok bill that'll be the moment he loses the 2024 election. I believe the purported connection is that it'll massively lower youth turnout, because they'll be so mad.
@DavidFWatson I like that there are a few other plausible correlations that push in different directions. Eg
TikTok bill success is a sign of…
…a well functioning Democrat party apparatus, as is a Biden win.
…a self-confident GOO that can tolerate bipartisan support for policy, suggestive of a Trump win.
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