Will I be diagnosed with ADHD?
resolved May 17

I just submitted the forms to initiate the process of diagnosing whether I have ADHD. I'm using an online private psychiatrist so it should happen within a couple months (NHS waitlists are like 3 years or something).

I've suspected it for a couple years now, but feel like there is reason to do it now because it could greatly improve my work productivity and remove the sense of being overwhelmed. This is common with my nature of getting tons of work done only once there is an extreme urgency to do so.

This market resolves based on the upcoming appointment's results. I might show this market to the doctor to see what the think of it and use it as an example to explain my job haha.

I figured I might as well provide some in-depth symptoms and history. I'm going to have to write it up for my doctor anyways so why not also post it here. Maybe some of you will find it an interesting read and it may also be helpful for my coworkers to read to understand my work patterns a bit better.


-As a kid was always top of class and teachers pet. Had no learning difficulties or issues with behaving in class. The only time I got into trouble was for drawing with a marker on the carpet (without realising) during story time.

-In 2nd grade I was taken out of class once a week for a hour to attend some special group counselling activities. In hindsight I'm not 100% what this was about and asking my parents they had no idea about any of this.

It was me, "the good kid" and 3 other boys who were frequently getting into trouble (2 of them ended up getting expelled). I think it might have been due to my emotional dysregulation that occurred during lunch break. I would lowkey have mental breakdowns and storm off to wall around alone if anything didnt go my way (eg didnt get on the football team I wanted to for that particularly lunch day).

Possibly they just put me in there because they knew missing class wouldnt affect me and wanted a role model to be in the group. Maybe there was nothing wrong with me at all lol.

-Was very depressed from 2017-2020 after leaving Istanbul where I had lived for 7 years. Took Setraline which I dont think helped. Almost fully better now although some habits I'm still working on improving!


(For those not familiar with ADHD a lot of these are common in everyone, but not all of them at once and to the extent they are debilitating in a person with ADHD).

  • I'm very fidgety and almost always have something in my hands. Usually I tear up tissues and make a mess.

  • Magical barrier that prevents me from starting chores/work/tasks even if I really want to do it. This is only overcome once stress levels peak and it becomes extremely urgent. This symptom is the key one that is really detrimental to my life rn.

  • Emotional dysregulation and rejection sensitivity. This is the thing that made me stop competing in Hearthstone. I just couldnt handle the big tournament losses even though I just told myself to focus on the next one. It has also put a strain on some friendships in the past.

  • Always late (for important things I get ready way earlier than I have to now and still normally get there right on time)

  • Problems finishing tasks. Often do 95% and dont wrap up the remaining 5%.

  • Some impulsiveness. (Although I can normally control it and I think this isnt rly a symptom, but rather just a life style choice lol).

  • The other common stuff such as constantly thinking on multiple levels simultaneously, hyperfocusing, getting distracted etc are all things I occasionally struggle with but not in a way I would consider detrimental to myself like it is for some with ADHD.

Reasons I might not have ADHD:

  • Maybe I still just have lingering depression or another physcological issue that causes these symptoms (eg. Gifted kid meets real world and needs to relearn some things - although Im skeptical of this).

  • Bias that makes me think I have these symptoms worse than I do compared to neurotypical person (tricking myself into believing it, especially after friends get diagnosed and reading reddit).

  • Significant evidence, but not an overwhelming amount, to point to it as a young kid. Has only become problematic late teens onwards.

There's many specific instances I could describe that showcase the symptoms I've listed above, but I won't bother here. If anyone is curious about examples for specific ones do feel free to ask!

Luckily I'm usually still able to get all my work done. It just tends to build up a bit more than I would like. I sometimes spend the first half the week worrying about doing work without actually doing as much as I could and then the second half and the weekend actually cramming it in.

The exception to this is when I'm working in person and it feels like I'm living on easy mode (although I still get distracted very easily). This is part of the reason I rly want to try to move to SF and if that fails I'll probably move more central to find a Coworking space in London.

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predicted YES

Honestly kinda shocked at this resolution.

I waited 3 years after first realising I might have it to try and self-observe and be introspective as impartially as possible (and also to wait for depression to subside so I could isolate symptoms to not be lingering effects from that).

I eventually felt there was just too overwhelming amount of evidence and that it was constantly decreasing my life quality by a significant amount that I simply could no longer put off paying for a private assessment. Anyways just ranting a bit because I'm not rly sure how to handle "not meeting the threshold for ADHD", when I was so sure I did (and now need to figure out what on earth these detrimental symptoms are a result of so I can tackle them).

predicted YES

@DavidChee I'm a bit like "ADHD might be more of a description of a cluster of symptoms that tend to co-occur than a single underlying cause". In my main model of ADHD, being diagnosed wouldn't help you better understand the cause of your symptoms, it would just give them a label.

I'm imagining that there's some ADHD symptom distribution and you could be pretty far on the right without passing the somewhat arbitrarily chosen threshold as measured by this psychiatrist on this day and that it isn't qualitatively that different from you being just to the right of the threshold.


predicted YES

Maybe instead of focusing on these few tenuous exceptions, we should focus on the headline result: 75% of findings were “unambiguously non-taxonic”, 17% were “unambiguously taxonic”, and 8% were “ambiguous”. In other words, the field as a whole pretty strongly suggests that most psychiatric disorders are just the tail end of normal variation, like “tall person” or “rich person”, and not a separate category like “rabbit” or “has the flu”. Among the conditions that were very strongly found to be dimensional only were depression, anxiety, and ADHD.

predicted YES

@NoaNabeshima I basically don't update much on this study to be clear because I imagine figuring out if something is taxonic is hard.

predicted YES

@NoaNabeshima yeah I agree with this for the most part. But I guess the thing it doesmt account for is there is a distinct chemical imbalance with ppl who have adhd. Now I'm left with these symptoms that have a pretty huge impact on my life that I'm not sure if theres a chemical cause for them, or how I can approach and tackle them.

I suspect adhd talking therapy will probably be of huge benefit even tho I wasnt diagnosed, so may still explore that more.

predicted YES

@DavidChee Why do you think there is a chemical imbalance in people who have adhd?

predicted YES

@NoaNabeshima (googling)

Who did you book with (if you dont mind sharing)?
I'm making a database with UK details of various places to streamline for future EAs

predicted YES

@GeorgeVii I should probably just make a google form to make automate data entries. Currently the two cheapest & quickest seem to be Seik and Mypace. With Seik seeming somewhat more "rigourous" if you want a "more proper" diagnosis, and Mypace being more convienient, lower "paperwork" type stuff, if thats a barrier for folks.

Anyways. Hope all goes well!

predicted YES

@GeorgeVii seik!

Havent actually paid anything yet. Just filled out the initial forms and am waiting to hear back.

Awww, this is so honest and open. For what it's worth, I've always been impressed that you don't just get your work done — you go the extra mile. You're great to work with, and I hope no matter what the diagnosis is, you get what you want out of this.

predicted YES

@Alice Thanks Alice!

I dont know if I would be comfortable being this transparent at a different company. But with everyone at Manifold I am ^^

Hmm hopefully my doctor doesnt decide to go all in on NO and then tell me I dont have it just so they can profit 😂

@DavidChee that would be amazing. I could imagine a doctor giving you a diagnosis while buying shares in the opposite direction as a hedge against his uncertainty.