Resolution criteria

This market resolves to Yes if OpenAI officially announces or releases a new frontier model, major model iteration (e.g., GPT-6.1, GPT-7), or a new specialized reasoning/voice model family on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to No.

• Source of Truth: Official announcements published on the OpenAI Newsroom or the OpenAI Blog.

• Definition of "New Model": This includes any new standalone model release or major architectural upgrade (e.g., a GPT-6.1, next-generation voice, or successor model). It excludes minor API adjustments, system prompt updates, or price cuts on existing models.

• Note to Creator: Because "soon" is subjective, the default resolution date is set to the end of 2026. The creator may edit this description to specify a different cutoff date or set of conditions if desired.

Background

OpenAI recently expanded its frontier AI lineup with the launch of the GPT-6 family, releasing GPT-6 Astra on September 3, 2026, followed by GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna on September 22, 2026. These releases focused heavily on cost efficiency, advanced computer use, and agentic workflows. With OpenAI DevDay scheduled for late September 2026, speculation is high regarding whether the company will preview or launch another major model update in the final months of the year.

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