Resolution Criteria
The climb is scheduled to stream live on Netflix on Saturday, January 24 at 8 PM ET / 5 PM PT. The market resolves YES if Alex Honnold falls from Taipei 101 during the climb. The market resolves NO if he successfully completes the ascent without falling. Resolution will be determined by the live broadcast and official statements from Netflix or event organizers.
Background
Honnold is climbing a 1,667-foot skyscraper without ropes or protective equipment. Others have climbed Taipei 101, but never without a rope. His unassisted ascent of El Capitan was the subject of the Oscar-winning 2018 documentary Free Solo. Taipei 101 presents architectural features Honnold calls "bamboo boxers," whose overhangs will complicate the climb.
Considerations
The main risk factor is fatigue—since the climb involves the same three moves repeated over and over, the only thing that could go wrong is if he gets tired, as he's unlikely to mess up the sequence after doing it 20 times in a row. Bad weather is another risk factor; if it's raining, the climb is a no-go, and there are eight different parts of the route where Honnold could bail if bad weather rolls in.
I'll search for current information about Alex Honnold's Taipei 101 climb to verify the details and provide accurate context.#### Resolution Criteria
The climb streams live on Netflix on Saturday, January 24 at 8 PM ET / 5 PM PT. The market resolves YES if Alex Honnold falls from Taipei 101 during the climb. The market resolves NO if he successfully completes the ascent without falling. Resolution will be determined by the live broadcast on Netflix and official statements from Netflix or event organizers.
Background
Honnold is set to become the first person to climb Taipei 101 without any safety equipment. The building is 1,667 feet tall with 101 stories. His previous free solo ascent of El Capitan earned him an Oscar for the documentary Free Solo. Urban climber Alain Robert previously scaled the skyscraper when it opened in 2004, but Taiwan's government required him to use a rope.
Considerations
Taipei 101 presents architectural features called "bamboo boxers," whose overhangs will complicate the climb. The main challenge comes from the overall physicality of 101 floors and the fatigue that builds over the course of the building. The climb was initially scheduled for Friday but was postponed 24 hours due to wet weather. Buildings are steeper than rock faces, and unlike most rock faces, the building is vertical the whole way.
Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution logic:
NO means Alex Honnold will NOT fall off Taipei 101 (market resolves to NO)
YES means Alex Honnold WILL fall off Taipei 101 (market resolves to YES)
This is contrary to standard Manifold convention where the market resolves YES if the answer to the question is affirmative (i.e., if "Will he fall?" has the answer "No, he didn't fall", it would typically resolve YES because the correct answer is "no"). The creator is explicitly stating they will resolve based on the literal outcome (fell = YES, didn't fall = NO) rather than whether the answer to the question is correct.
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@traders Re-resolved. Please consider not trading on badly defined markets, or making new better-defined ones.
Listen up for you simpleton ass backwards no is the new yes traders I don't know where y'all come from or where they even do that at... But me I'm a stand up straight forward in your face Real 💯 # keep it 1000 All day long Solid ass JAG like Juvenile except I'm from Big Money Texas (BMT) 👌 SOUTH 6 ☝️🤚
P -Side and you can ask ANY one of Yg's OG's any hustler on the corner or your regular average joe at the gas station and they gon tell you ; NO MEANS NO & YES MEANS YES!!!
I mean you starting to sound like a sex offender with all this no is the new yes shit smh
Shit starting to get out of hand
Ijs though
I don't know how much simpler the resolve can get I mean read the question people sound it out, Will AH Fall off TaiPai 101?? It's 50/50 not multiple choice in the real world No Means NO, he will not fall off TaiPai 101 & Yes means YES, he will fall off TaiPai101 there is no re-resolve the answer was CLEAR as day NO he did not fall off TaiPai101 Period.
@DatBoyCoYo no, that’s not how manifold works. The answer no, resolves yes, because NO he didn’t fall off is correct. No is the correct answer, so it resolves yes. You joined today, I joined over 2 years ago. I have seen this happen before, and I know how it works.
@Jack1 Idgaf if you created manifold or you are the CEO y'all all sound dumb ASF I made the question as simple as it could possibly be so no confusion No means No like you hear on law and order SVU for rapists and yes means yes he fell off the damn building smh
@DatBoyCoYo no. You joined today and made a market very poorly. Why would you make this market a set? It should be a yes/no or a multi choice with 2 answers. Not a set.
@Jack1 are you fucking kidding me are you dumb or something read the question again it is 100% without a doubt a YES or NO Question. Which means THERE ARE ONLY 2 ANSWERS!!!!
YES!!!! OR NO!!!!
"Will Alex Hannold fall off TaiPai 101?"
There is no A B C or D, there is no N/A, there is no weather variable bullshit or date changes
ITS YES OR FUCKING NO !!!!
And the correct answer to the 50/50 question : "Will Alex Hannold fall off TaiPai 101?"
Is NO HE
DIDN'T FALL OFF THE FUCKING BUILDING is that simple enough for you?
@DatBoyCoYo The answer ‘No’ should resolve YES, because he didn’t fall off. Please remain calm while discussing. Thanks
@mods please Reresolve, Yes should resolve no and No should resolve yes. Thanks. As it didn’t happen
@moobunny This should have been a yes/no market or dependent choice market, but as-is resolving “No” as YES is correct as strange as it is