Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, between October 6, 2026, and the end of Midterm Election Day on November 3, 2026 (Eastern Time), President Donald Trump makes a verbal, physical, or behavioral mistake during a public appearance, rally, interview, or official event that is widely characterized as a "gaffe," "blunder," or "slip-up" by mainstream media.
To ensure an objective resolution, the following criteria apply:
Media Consensus: The event must be described as a "gaffe," "blunder," "slip-up," or synonymous term in the headlines or lead paragraphs of at least three publications within 72 hours of its occurrence.
Community Poll Fallback: If there is a dispute or ambiguity about whether an event meets these criteria, the market creator will launch a Manifold community poll. The market will resolve to YES if 51% or more of the voters in the poll agree that a major gaffe occurred, and NO otherwise.
If no qualifying event occurs during the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to NO.
1,000