Will I, Danny O'Brien, reach my target weight of 185 lbs by December 1, 2023?

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I've been dieting since June 13, and doing pretty well. I was 220lbs at the start, and now, 97 days later, I've dived under 200lbs for the first time. But will I hit my target weight of 185lbs by December 1st, just in time for to gain it all back over Christmas?

You can see an (updated daily) chart of my progress here: https://danny.spesh.com/now/weight.html and submit your worst data science attempts at this CSV record of my progress: https://danny.spesh.com/now/weight.txt (no, I do not know why all my weigh-ins appear to be irrational numbers).

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predictedNO

I'm proud of the weight you've lost regardless of whether you reached your goal or not.

(An update -- I've had to travel a fair bit this month, and I think that actually hitting this schedule would probably be bad for me at this stage. I'm not going to end the market early, but I'm just trying to continue losing right rather than explicitly hit this goal.)

ChatGPT4's data analysis now predicting December 15th: https://chat.openai.com/share/4a9d06b7-f40a-4ed0-b1c2-209926a07fc5

predictedYES

You're behind pace at the moment - I have you reaching 185 on Dec 18th.

@peterpumpkin this is true! otoh, I'm going to resolve YES if my weight equals or dips below 185lb at any point so you should factor in the variance you see.

Rooting for you! My payout depends on your success!

But seriously best of luck on your health journey.

Side note: is "no" suppose to be the motivational option? Thats what it seems from the other comments

@CDOUG I know, it's strange, right? I take YES and NO's as actively interested in my health!

I'm betting NO only because I think you're going to miss by one measly pound and hit 186 by Dec 1

Also betting NO for motivation! Take my mana! Go other-Danny go!

PS: But I really need to understand how it turned out that a custom web page with weight graph plus a Manifold market made more sense than a Beeminder graph!

Betting No for motivation. Keep up the great work

The chart is ridiculously linear so I'm betting YES (and because extending the line barely makes it to the 185lb mark on Dec 1).

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