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the confirmation button stopped me from betting lol

@SavioMak same lmao

@fredrickslick but which way and how much?

@ChristopherRandles was gonna drop 6k on a yes limit order, dont know if that was actually enough tho so maybe its a good thing

@fredrickslick Why up there was more to be made from down. Your 6k could have beat my 4k but there may have been someone else with 10k so it seems sensible to always go the way that makes most.

@ChristopherRandles gotta commit to my initial bet y'know? more fun that way

rip

I really like this, because in control theory it is possible to find such a function, which causes ever-growing oscillation of the market!

Seems like you need 12 to 17 more positions against you to reduce %chance range of losing to 15% to less than 1%. Currently betting 10000 on no earns 828 which might be enough to bribe 13-18 people. However if it seemed like someone was trying to arrange this then I expect a lot of the book orders would disappear and less could be made.

So my current expectations are that:

1. No-one tries to find that many people to bribe, and

2. It is a last second big bet up or down that settles which way it goes, and

3. Without bribes there won't be a big imbalance in numbers of positions so this won't matter, and

4. The % chance will stay near 50% until last seconds as pushing it one way makes the other way more likely.

5. Which way it goes may depend less on whether the %chance is 47-49% or 51-53% and depend more on the size and at what % the orders that remain are at as we approach the last few seconds.

Having written this, now everyone will probably try to show me to be wrong on lots or every point so lots of my expectations could be wrong, but now I have including this in my expectations .... does that mean I am expecting everything so I can't be wrong?

Nobody seems to be picking up on what I am hinting at, to remove orders or to trade this claim so lets try making it a bit clearer:

Betting 10000 on yes stands to win 668

Betting 10000 on no stands to win 821

Therefore if nothing changes it is more likely a whale will push it towards no to make more mana. Should trading push it in this direction to make the potential gains more equal? Or alternatively, perhaps book orders that may be forgotten are a bad idea?

With % chance currently at 45%, 10000 on yes wins 697 10000 on no wins 657.

So whale pushing up looks more likely now.

Feels like another bribing market, but this time I will just wait for another person to bribe me...

@SavioMak ahaha fair enough

seems more like a whale market... green zone doesn't vary much

oh wait nevermind

@cloe there's room for the little guys to make money by betting on the zone we're currently in. As long as they don't push it into the other zone.

@Daniel_MC yeah didn't see the percentage was from 0 to 1. though it does seem like who can get the least people or who can convince the most people to bet opposingly rather than who can get the most b/c betting well and adding a position to a side you'd want to win is selfsabotage (unless you're a whale and want to maximize profit or something)

@cloe that's fair I'll clarify that the % is in decimal.

@Daniel_MC To my mind, "zone we're currently in" is irrelevant, it is where it will be at close and that depends on whether a whale pushes price up or down just before closing.

Hyperlink:

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/dzneh92vu2