I don't think "jail" is what you mean. You mean "prison".

@BrunoJ Correct, we should probably edit this right?

@Joshua Agreed.

@BrunoJ Although from the comment below, he might mean to just say "sentenced to serve time" by the same definition as Martin's market?

@Daniel_MC seems pretty active, I'm sure they'll chip in soon

@BrunoJ you guys are right, I meant prison. Down here in Australia the two mean the same thing.

@Joshua what do you see as the difference between sentenced to prison and sentenced to serve time?

@Daniel_MC House arrest

@Joshua you best me to it.

House arrest wasn't included in what I was initially thinking, but my comparison to the other market does dirty the water a bit.

I think it would be cleanest to update the description to say that house arrest doesn't count. I think this is what most traders would have assumed - do you guys agree?

@Daniel_MC seems fair

@Joshua and edit all instances of jail to prison, right?

@Joshua Yep. Missed the ones in the actual options lol.

At the moment in this market there's a ~20% chance he serves time in 2024.

There's also a ~25% chance he serves time in 2025 which could happen if he's sentenced in 2024 but his sentence is stayed (pushed back) until after appeals.

So the 2 'trump sentenced' options should add up to at least 20% imo. (Unless he gets sentenced after the election or gets house arrest)