If trump is sentenced to prison will it boost his election chances?
110
αΉ€15k
Nov 3
46%
Trump not sentenced to prison and elected
39%
Trump not sentenced to prison and not elected
7%
Trump sentenced to prison and elected
8%
Trump sentenced to prison and not elected

Must be sentenced to prison by any US court before the 2024 election. Need not go to prison before the election.

House arrest does not count for this market.

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I don't think "jail" is what you mean. You mean "prison".

@BrunoJ Correct, we should probably edit this right?

@Joshua Agreed.

@BrunoJ Although from the comment below, he might mean to just say "sentenced to serve time" by the same definition as Martin's market?

@Daniel_MC seems pretty active, I'm sure they'll chip in soon

@BrunoJ you guys are right, I meant prison. Down here in Australia the two mean the same thing.

@Joshua what do you see as the difference between sentenced to prison and sentenced to serve time?

@Daniel_MC House arrest

@Joshua you best me to it.

House arrest wasn't included in what I was initially thinking, but my comparison to the other market does dirty the water a bit.

I think it would be cleanest to update the description to say that house arrest doesn't count. I think this is what most traders would have assumed - do you guys agree?

@Daniel_MC seems fair

@Joshua and edit all instances of jail to prison, right?

@Joshua Yep. Missed the ones in the actual options lol.

At the moment in this market there's a ~20% chance he serves time in 2024.

There's also a ~25% chance he serves time in 2025 which could happen if he's sentenced in 2024 but his sentence is stayed (pushed back) until after appeals.

So the 2 'trump sentenced' options should add up to at least 20% imo. (Unless he gets sentenced after the election or gets house arrest)

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