By the end of 2023, will Elon Musk claim he is an Effective Altruist?
resolved Jan 2

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

@DanielKilian how do you plan to handle probable sarcastic announcements?

E.g. a tweet like "oh yeah I'm definitely an "effective altruist" 😂 "

@OllieBase That would still resolve as "Yes".

Will this resolve as 'yes' if you find that he has already identified as one somewhere, or do only new statements count?

@EmrikGarden It would need to be a new declaration.

@DanielKilian Will kinda hinting it count? How explicit does it need to be? Vaguely hinting positive affect towards the idea of EA? Implying that he cares about effectiveness in his efforts to do good in the world? Most of my uncertainty regarding this market is over states of your mind atm! :P

@EmrikGarden If someone brings up an example of him saying something to the positive, I will create another market asking "does this exerpt mean Elon Musk identifies as an effective altruist?' If that market resolves as 'yes', then this market will resolve as 'yes'

predicted NO

@DanielKilian That’s sounds like turtles all the way down! How is the resolution of that market in turn decided?!

Personally, I expect this to not get particularly controversial and think you’ll make a reasonable judgement, but these are interesting (and important!) fundamental questions.

@catfromdevnull Hmm... I suppose it may be better for me to just decide using my own reasonable judgement and the mods of Market Manifolds (MM) can decide whether I resolved the market correctly. If I resolve in a way MM deems unfit, they can mark me as an unreliable market creator.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Elon is definitely familiar with rat/ea ideas but i doubt he’ll identify as one

@Sinclair Also, at this point, I'm not even sure he's read much of e.g. the Sequences.

I think he has already. He hired some random poker player to manage his philanthropy briefly but dumped him when he started getting more scrutiny following the bid for twitter.

oh and the poker player was an EA guy.

@BTE I believe you, but would you be willing to provide a source?

@BTE Thank you!

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@DanielKilian I believe I have seen a YouTube interview where Musk was asked if he believed in EA and his response was "yeah, something like that" or something like that. LOL. I should try to find that too.

@BTE I was wondering! I mean, I'm having trouble finding the right descriptive words for someone who believes they and others will live indefinitely, will work towards a future with zero suffering, but is okay with forgiving themselves for making mistakes that make them not totally aligned with effective altruistic goals (like eating meat occasionally, but has plans to become vegan once they have the willpower or realize eating meat is wrong. To describe myself, I would say I'm a eternalist hedonist working to align with effective altruist ideation. I wonder what Elon would be.

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