Will there be a second round in Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election?

Close date updated to 2023-03-05 3:59 pm

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DanStoyell avatar
Danpredicted NO at 11%

Unless anyone offers me some evidence that a lawsuit will succeed in forcing a second round (as opposed to a second first round as Aaron mentioned), I'll resolve as NO tomorrow.

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreiderpredicted NO at 10%

@DanStoyell Go to any major Nigerian news website. They are doing lawsuits (I'd put this at a 99% probability). Either PDP and LP are going to do separate lawsuits or a joint one.


Some very clear evidence of intentional voter suppression:
"Election monitoring group Yiaga, said only 10% of polling units in the south-east and 29% in the south had started accreditation and voting by 09:30 local time on Saturday

Some 63% of polling units in the south-west and 42% of polling units in the north-west, known APC strongholds" (paraphrased/shortened for twitter)

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreiderpredicted NO at 10%

@AaronKreider Unfortunately the lawsuits might take a long time to resolve.

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreiderbought Ṁ100 of NO

It's also possible that the courts might rule for a remake of the first round, in which case technically it would be a second first round.

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreiderpredicted NO at 19%

The best approach is probably to reference what the Nigerian courts have done in the past. I know they sometimes rehold elections (ex. one of the senatorial candidates died this round before the vote).

DanStoyell avatar
Dansold Ṁ29 of YES

@MartinModrak I will wait a bit to resolve in case of lawsuits/controversy that forces a second round, but seems like a NO right now.

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrákpredicted NO at 22%

@DanStoyell Completely agree that resolving would be premature, I just wanted to highlight that an important piece of new information is available.

DismalScientist avatar

Interesting system: “Three hopefuls seem to have a shot at victory. To secure it they have to gain not only the most votes nationally, but also win at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and federal capital. If no candidate clears that bar, there will be an unprecedented run-off.” from the economist

DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientistbought Ṁ25 of YES

@DismalScientist These polls seem to suggest that no one is likely to clear 25% in two-thirds of districts