Will @BTE pay back my 15k mana loan before the end of January?
32
651
550
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO

Pretty self explanatory. Half creating this market just to remind myself I did the loan.

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@BTE what’s your current plan for repayment?

predicted NO

Resolution please @DanMan314

I don't see any managrams, so looks like a NO to me

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington oops. I had intended to buy the debt but forgot the month ended yesterday.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@BTE has 50k Mana invested in the Hamas Command Center market (and only 1k in loans in that specific market). Of course he can't sell it all at once or he'd lose most of the value to slippage. But if some other whale sets up a large NO limit-order it would allow BTE to sell off some of his position and easily pay back Dan.

predicted NO

@Agh Or just fund him. (or another loan from so else) But why does he hold/just bought a No-position in this market? It's whalwatching at this point, no serious forecasting.

predicted NO

@Agh Set it up at 31 percent and I will sell a bunch

predicted YES

@BTE No thanks, I don't wanna get involved in that mess of a market. But I'm sure you could find somebody, if you made a slightly more generous offer,

boughtṀ30YES

@jskf What do you know?

bought Ṁ10 YES from 15% to 17%
bought Ṁ30 of YES

@BTE It would mean the world to me if you paid this loan right now. I am but a poor peasant manifolder, but I hope one day I will have the mana necessary to thank you for this act.

predicted NO

@Pykess You have 33 mana more than me at the moment my friend.

predicted YES

@BTE I always misread the net worth value as the balance value ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ whoops

Should I interpret this literally? Or is this about an agreeable outcome. Basically, if you agree to extend the loan, does this resolve NO?

@jskf Good question. i don’t intend to extend the loan, but if I change my mind and it’s for a reason I consider agreeable (I would give this a very low probability), I’ll resolve N/A.

If I’m “paid back” in like, actual $ or something else I consider agreeable, that would count for YES.