Was the Indian government involved in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar?
Basic
86
12k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/canada/canada-india-sikh-killing.html

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday that “agents of the Indian government” carried out the killing of a Sikh community leader in British Columbia last June.

Mr Trudeau said Canadian intelligence has identified a "credible" link between his death and the Indian state.

Here is some (but not all) of the criteria that would count as involvement:

  • Knowingly funding or providing resources

  • The perpetrators being members of the government

  • Directly asking for the murder to occur

Some things that would not count:

  • Knowledge, but no involvement, of the plot

  • Unknowingly funding or providing resources.

At the end of the year (or sooner if a strong consensus is formed), I will look at the consensus of credible media reports and the language they use on culpability for the killing.

If there is consensus that the Indian government was involved, this market resolves YES.

If there is no strong consensus either way, this market resolves N/A.

If there is consensus that the Indian government was not involved, this market resolves NO.

Since this market relies heavily on my interpretation of consensus, I will not bet in this market, and encourage people to ask questions to clarify.

See also: /DanMan314/will-the-indian-government-admit-to

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Unless something changes in the next several hours, this market will resolve N/A. The reasoning:

I looked at the most recent articles discussing the killing from the NYTimes, AP, BBC, and Washington Post:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/canada/india-assassination-plot-canada-sikh.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/12/19/india-us-assassination-plot-defendant/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67725254

https://apnews.com/article/india-us-sikh-assassination-plot-biden-modi-116a96d1b8c797106f35293b31e089c8

The current consensus among these articles is that the allegations by the US bolster Canada's credibility, but none use language that takes a position (even implicitly) on the claim itself. The closest the AP comes is by discussing the foiled plot in the US as though it's a given that it actually happened, but it doesn't extend such language to Nijjar's case. Thus, there is no "strong consensus", and the criteria for this market to resolve YES is not met.

I'd love feedback on this market format. My intention was to create a market that could resolve relatively unambiguously once consensus was created without tying resolution criteria too tightly to any particular piece of evidence. I also didn't want to tie people's mana up indefinitely, but I recognize that resolving N/A comes with downsides as well.

@DanMan314 I think extending close date is fine. See https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory. N/A removes profits which is probably worse than locking up mana (which is regained by loans) in my opinion

@nikki I think that's what I'll do next time, for for this market I'm upholding my initial commitment.

predicted NO

If it is the rogue act of a government employee, is "the Indian government involved"?

@galaga Good question. I think this is at least a little bit of a grey area.

If the person was acting on behalf of a government agency (or even believed they were), that would be sufficient to resolve YES. Modi condemning and disclaiming the action would still mean that his government was involved.

If it was a person who happened to be a member of the government, but wasn't acting in their capacity as an employee, that would be NO.

I recognize that we might not know for sure by the end of the year. I'll defer to the way media discusses the issue - if they are clear to distinguish the actor from any government involvement, this would resolve NO. If they implicate a government agency, even one condemned by other parts of the Indian government, that is YES.

bought Ṁ5 NO at 94%
predicted YES

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-charges-connection-foiled-plot-assassinate-us-citizen-new-york

https://www.justice.gov/media/1326501/dl?inline

Today’s indictment from the American Department of Justice affirms that Hardeep Singh Nijjar was an explicit target of an operation by an Indian government employee. Unclear if the subjects of that indictment actually killed him in the end, or if it was other associates of theirs, but the fact that it was someone connected with the Indian government seems nearly certain.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 91% to 94%

Why would Canada jeopardize its ties with India when I believe they have strong evidence of the murder? This is why I consider it likely that India is to blame. Since the man who was executed was the leader of a Sikh extremist organization, this organization is also to blame for the intercommunal strife in India. In addition, the Sikh community is growing significantly. The Canadian prime minister will have broad support in the next election by denouncing the death of a Sikh leader. India disagrees with Canada's position. Additionally, they have declined to provide the Canadian citizen's visa. They asserted that Canada supports terrorists.


Why would Canada jeopardize its ties with India when I believe they have strong evidence of the murder? This is why I consider it likely that India is to blame. Since the man who was executed was the leader of a Sikh extremist organization, this organization is also to blame for the intercommunal strife in India. In addition, the Sikh community is growing significantly. The Canadian prime minister will have broad support in the next election by denouncing the death of a Sikh leader. India disagrees with Canada's position. Additionally, they have declined to provide the Canadian citizen's visa. They asserted that Canada supports terrorists.

I think it is extremely likely (>95%) that India did it, because why would Canada just make this up and muck up relations with an ally for no reason. But given they haven't released the evidence yet I think there is probably some reason why they don't want to do so, and so I think the chances of this resolving 'yes' are much lower, maybe 50/50. I can't see it resolving "no". Even in the unlikely event India didn't do it, the real perpetrators probably won't be found (especially given how embarrassing it would be for Canada to find them!).

predicted YES

@DavidMathers from the market description it appears that it can resolve YES on media consensus, even if the Canadian government doesn't make any more statements (although realistically I think they will have to)

predicted YES

@JoshuaWilkes Fair point.

what happens if there is no evidence released by the Canadian government (or even leaks by claimed by the media) at the end of the year

predicted YES

@Victory_VIJAY there have been leaks by media already?

@Victory_VIJAY The resolution will be based on how the event is discussed by mainstream media. If they use language like “the Indian government killed Nijjar”, it will resolve YES.

I imagine if no new evidence emerges one way or the other they will continue to hedge and not directly attribute the killing, so this would resolve N/A. See for example this AP article: https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-sikh-trudeau-modi-nijjar-fb390e4a45d167711db4f96681edd0a2

If evidence emerges that the Indian government was not involved, or Trudeau retracts his accusation, or similar, I imagine they’ll start referring to the incident as a false claim by Trudeau, and it will resolve NO.

I do think there’s a solid chance this market resolves N/A, and I don’t like that but I didn’t want to leave it open indefinitely and it’s very possible conclusive evidence might just not emerge.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 Thanks for the explanation ❤ 👍

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