If Biden wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2025?
I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset. In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons. Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.
If Biden does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
If the total number for 2025 is 4.8 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.
If the total number for 2025 is higher than 4.8 billion tons, this market resolves NO.
I'll use the exact number reported in the table view, not the rounded one that is seen on hover. This market will remain open until the number is added to OWID, or the backing data source, Global Carbon Budget (https://globalcarbonbudget.org/).
Partner market for Trump:
See also the longer term markets:
Note that OWID’s backing data source is Global Carbon Budget, which released 4.9b tons as its estimate for 2023. It used a slightly different methodology than Carbon Brief, which is a little higher across the board in estimated emissions. I chose OWID because I didn’t want Carbon Brief “grading its own homework”, and because they have a regular release schedule.