How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
95
332
2.4K
Nov 1
83%
Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict
10%
Mistrial
3%
Not guilty (of any crimes) by jury verdict
2%
Dismissal / dropped charges
1.3%
Plea bargain

Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.

IMPORTANT: This market will resolve to the outcome that ends the trial. If some charges are dropped (or a plea bargain is struck), but others go all the way to a jury verdict, this market resolves to jury verdict.

Resolution Details

Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict: A jury declares Trump guilty of at least one crime.

Not guilty (of any crimes) by jury verdict: A jury clears Trump of all crimes

Plea bargain: Trump agrees to any sort of plea bargain, ending the trial. If there is a plea bargain on some charges, and a jury later rules Trump not guilty on the remaining charges, the market still resolves to "not guilty by jury verdict".

Dismissal / dropped charges: A judge drops all the charges, ending the trial, or dismisses the case for another reason. Includes the prosecution dropping charges with no plea deal.

Mistrial: The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.

If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals or retrials.

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bought Ṁ10 Mistrial YES

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