Conditional on room temp superconductors by the end of the year, will we have commercial nuclear fusion by 2030?
15
70
Ṁ236Ṁ290
2030
33%
chance
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This market resolves N/A if there is not strong consensus that a material that is superconductive at room temperature and ambient pressure has been discovered by the end of 2023.
If there is such a consensus (for example, around LK-99), this market resolves based on whether nuclear fusion is used commercially by 2030.
Commercially means there are active, real-world use cases for nuclear fusion. A lab demonstrating above break-even production of energy would not be sufficient, but, for example, meaningful use of fusion for power or heat generation outside a laboratory context would.
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@HenkPoley Resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2024, which means invested mana is returned to participants with no profit or loss for either side.
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