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MANIFOLD
When do we see peak Falcon?
13
Ṁ1kṀ3.3k
2031
0.9%
2024
80%
2025
9%
2026
3%
2027
1.6%
2028
1.6%
2029
1.7%
2030
1.5%
Other

When will SpaceX fly the highest number of Falcon 9 flights in a calendar year?

Falcon Heavy not included.

Resolution

Resolves to the year with the most flights. Flights with a mishap count, so long as it launched from the pad.

To capture the lifetime peak year, we would need to wait until Falcon 9 is cancelled, in order to know there won't be a later resurgence in flights.

In practice, we'll actually resolve once annual flights have decreased from the previous year, so long as SpaceX signals that they expect an even lower number for the upcoming year.

Will be extended, if needed.

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Gwynne Shotwell in TIME interview:

Last year was our largest launch year for Falcon. Yeah, this year we'll still launch a lot, but not as much. We launched 165 times last year. This year, maybe 140, 145-ish, yeah. And then we'll tail off our launches as starship is coming online,

https://time.com/article/2026/03/26/spacex-gwynne-shotwell-full-interview/

bought Ṁ50 YES

But Starship’s arrival will come at the expense of the workhorse Falcon 9, which lacks the capacity to haul the next-gen Starlinks to orbit. “This year and next year I anticipate will be the highest Falcon launch rates that we will see,” said Stephanie Bednarek, SpaceX’s vice president of commercial sales, at an industry conference in July.

I believe the count for 2024 is 132