I'm going to flip a coin one week from now.
YES = Heads
NO = Tails
I'm starting this market off with m100 on heads.
For every 10 unique traders on this market, I'll add another m100 prediction to yes/heads.
That means you'll get tails at a discount, but only if you trust me to resolve it honestly per the private coin flip that only I will see.
I promise to resolve this market honestly per the results of the coin flip.
This market will track the odds of a coin flip alongside the value of my promise.
Close date updated to 2023-01-08 10:14 pm
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ102 | |
| 2 | Ṁ46 | |
| 3 | Ṁ46 | |
| 4 | Ṁ18 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
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I flipped the coin and it landed on heads, as I predicted it would. You can trust me.
I have a similar market that closes tomorrow (https://manifold.markets/DalibanAdjacent/when-i-flip-a-coin-in-one-week-will-8f99c45e9995) except I predicted tails on that one.
Here's a link to the same market, except for TAILS, and it resolves one day later. Will the outcome of this first market impact people's perceptions for the second one and influence the odds? The second market, I estimate, will track the odds of a coin flip alongside the value of my promise alongside any perceptions that arise from the
resolution of the HEADS market.
