When I flip a coin in one week, will it land on heads or tails? (I'm putting 100 on TAILS.)
19
17
370
resolved Jan 10
Resolved
YES

I'm going to flip a coin one week from now.

YES = Heads

NO = Tails

I'm starting this market off with m100 on tails.

For every 10 unique traders on this market, I'll add another m100 prediction to no/tails.

That means you'll get heads at a discount, but only if you trust me to resolve it honestly per the private coin flip that only I will see.

I promise to resolve this market honestly per the results of the coin flip.

This market will track the odds of a coin flip alongside the value of my promise.

This is the opposite of a sister-market I created, which resolves one day earlier: https://manifold.markets/DalibanAdjacent/when-i-flip-a-coin-in-one-week-will

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

This one was heads. My prediction was incorrect.

predicted NO

This flip will be taking place tonight. On the previous market, I predicted "HEADS" and the coin landed on "HEADS" so I earned mana. This time, I'm predicting "TAILS/NO". Feel free to adjust your predictions accordingly, but I promise to resolve the market according to the coin flip.

predicted YES

Will you be using a fair coin?

predicted NO

@JimHays I'll be using a 2018 Canadian 25 cent coin for both of these markets

predicted NO

@DalibanAdjacent Canadian? Oh no

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Time for another m100 on tails to shake things up.

The odds are favorable for heads, unless you think I might try some funny business, in which case it might make sense to wager alongside me on tails.