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For more specific predictions:

There is a big difference between an announcement and that Sweden has “made it into NATO.” The title and the descriptions should be aligned and clarified.

@CivilizedGuy yes, there are three things that are not completely the same here in the title and description:

• "Will Sweden make it into NATO before 2024?"

  • as a full member then, so, after the "deposit of the Swedish instrument of accession"

• "Will Sweden convince Turkey to relinquish the veto on joinging NATO before 2024?"

  • there's still the Hungarian parliament vote afterwards to integrate NATO

• "a public announcement by the alliance in the affirmative"

  • what kind of announcement?

As @marketwise said previously, what would make sense and should matter is the "deposit of the Swedish instrument of accession" being done before 31st December 2023.

What exactly is the resolution criterion?

• Erdogan declaring (again) that he'll let Sweden in

• the Turkish parliament voting on it

• Erdogan giving his assent

• the Turkish Foreign Ministry depositing the instrument of ratification

• what really counts as Sweden being in NATO, which is the deposit of the Swedish instrument of accession by the Swedish government (which also requires Hungary to deposit its ratification before it can happen)
  
  These are all different and only one of them really matters.

@BrunoParga description says "public announcement by the alliance" which corresponds to "deposit of the Swedish instrument of accession" for me. Essentially, this Finland announcement on April 4 but for Sweden.

In other words, it should resolve exactly like /MetaculusBot/will-sweden-join-nato-before-2024

.

@neonnomad Pretty clearly states “by 2024”, with a closing date the last day of 2023. I feel like this is a fair resolution criteria