MANIFOLD
Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $40 per pound on August 29, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ170
Aug 29
88%
chance

Resolves YES if the U3O8 spot price, as reported by UxC or TradeTech on August 29, 2026, is strictly greater than $40 per pound. This threshold is near current market prices (~$38-$39/lb in early 2026) and reflects the potential price impact of Kazatomprom's long-term uranium supply deal with India, which could tighten spot market availability and push prices higher. The market excludes contract prices and focuses solely on spot price quotes published on that date. This contract captures the forward-looking effect of supply constraints on uranium pricing amid structural shifts in nuclear fuel markets.

The long-term contract implies reduced supply on the spot market, potentially driving up uranium prices.

Source: Article

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