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MANIFOLD
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026?
6
Ṁ1kṀ7.5k
resolved Oct 26
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if the reported reduction in global lithium supply attributable specifically to the Zimbabwe export ban exceeds 15,000 tonnes on September 29, 2026, as reflected in authoritative industry supply data such as USGS lithium production and trade reports, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, or equivalent reputable sources. This threshold is near expected supply impact estimates given Zimbabwe's significant spodumene feedstock contribution and current tightening lithium market conditions. The market excludes unrelated supply disruptions and focuses solely on the export ban's direct effect on global lithium availability.

Zimbabwe's export ban removes a significant portion of global lithium feedstock. This affects supply chains and tightens global lithium availability.

Source: Article

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Resolving No based on this comment. The highest estimates I found were below 10 kt of lithium metal.