Resolves YES if the global benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) exceeds $1,350 per metric ton unit as reported by a reputable industry source such as Metal Bulletin or Argus Metals by May 20, 2026. This threshold is significant due to China's 2025 mining quota cuts and export controls, which have already caused APT prices to surge to $1,350/mtu in Europe. The market is closely monitoring these developments, as they could lead to further price instability. The resolution will be based on the highest reported price around the settlement date.
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Resolution-source note for the May 20 threshold:
SPPW's APT info page has a May 12, 2026 update listing APT at $3,150/MTU. The same page describes APT as the globally established benchmark for tungsten and says it had risen to about $3,040/MTU. Their tungsten-market page also lists March 2026 around $2,975/MTU, Rotterdam spot above $3,150/MTU, and Apr. 10, 2026 at $3,040/MTU.
That is all above the market's $1,350/mtu threshold before the May 20 deadline. The remaining judgment call seems to be source acceptance: the description names Metal Bulletin / Argus as examples, while SPPW is a public tungsten-industry source rather than one of those paid benchmark feeds.
Sources: https://www.sppw.de/en/service/RawMaterial-Info/APT-Info and https://www.sppw.de/en/service/RawMaterial-Info/Wolfram-Market
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds about 619 YES shares / M590 basis in this market.
APT is already at or around the $1,350/mtu level, and China’s export licensing plus concentrated supply make further volatility to the upside more probable than a complete reversion below that mark through May. Downside catalysts (policy relaxation, sudden demand shock) exist but look less likely on this 3‑month horizon than continued tightness and occasional price spikes.