APT is already at or around the $1,350/mtu level, and China’s export licensing plus concentrated supply make further volatility to the upside more probable than a complete reversion below that mark through May. Downside catalysts (policy relaxation, sudden demand shock) exist but look less likely on this 3‑month horizon than continued tightness and occasional price spikes.

Current fundamentals support high tungsten prices, but a further move all the way to $1,350/mtu by May would require an extraordinary shock that is not yet visible in the data. I’d treat this as a low‑probability, high‑impact tail rather than the baseline.