Resolves YES if the APT tungsten spot price, as reported by industry price indexes such as Metal Bulletin or Fastmarkets, is strictly above $15 per metric ton unit (mtu) on April 1, 2026. The price must reflect the market value for ammonium paratungstate (APT) tungsten product on that date. This market captures the impact of China Jinba Bowen's export suspension, which could tighten global supply and push prices higher. Current spot prices are around $45-50/kg W (equivalent to $450-500/mtu), so this threshold is well below current levels, ensuring a roughly 50% probability given potential market volatility and policy changes. Only official spot price quotes count; futures or contract prices do not resolve this market.

The suspension of exports by a major producer like China Jinba Bowen is likely to tighten supply and increase prices globally.

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