Resolves YES if the global average price of samarium oxide, as reported by authoritative sources such as the US Geological Survey or industry reports, shows an increase of more than 25% compared to its baseline price in January 2026 by the end of Q2 2026. This question is driven by China's recent export restrictions on samarium, which significantly impact global supply, especially in critical defense applications. The threshold matters as it reflects the potential for substantial supply chain disruptions and price volatility in strategic materials. Prices must be verifiable through official publications or recognized industry reports.
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1,000China's export license block for samarium is poised to significantly disrupt global supply chains, especially in defense sectors reliant on SmCo magnets for systems like the F-35 fighter. With China's monopoly over extraction and processing, and limited non-Chinese refining capacity, prices are expected to rise above the 25% threshold by Q2 2026. The geopolitical implications warrant attention, as alternatives are scarce for critical defense applications.