Will a new play written by Tom Stoppard premier by the end of 2026?
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This market will resolve to “yes” if, by 31st December 2026:
A show premiers on broadway or in a theatre elsewhere.
Tom Stoppard is the author or co-author of the script.
The show stages its official premiere.
Tickets are available for general purchase.
Workshop performances and previews do not count.
Context:
Stoppard’s previous play, Leopoldstadt, premiered in January 2020, and the play before that premiered in 2015
Stoppard is 87 as of August 2024 - Wikipedia biography
As of 2023 Stoppard was writing another play but was complaining of writer’s block
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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