Background

OpenAI has recently announced plans to release GPT-4.5 "within weeks," according to multiple tech news sources. While no specific date has been confirmed, the company is expected to make several announcements about their AI models in early 2025. Sam Altman commented on GPT-4.5 on the 17th of February on X, and replies suggested he should make a significant announcement as a means of disrupting the launch of Grok 3:

https://x.com/sama/status/1891533802779910471?s=46

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if OpenAI makes any of the following announcements specifically about GPT-4.5 on February 17th or 18th, 2025:

• A public demonstration or livestream of GPT-4.5's capabilities

• An official release date announcement

• Publication of GPT-4.5's performance on standard AI benchmarks

• Official launch of GPT-4.5

The announcement must come through official OpenAI channels (website, blog, social media accounts, press release, or public event) to qualify. Leaks, rumors, or third-party reports will not count toward resolution.

Considerations

• While OpenAI has historically made major announcements with advance notice, they have occasionally released significant updates with minimal warning

• The timing of AI model releases can be unpredictable due to last-minute technical issues or strategic decisions

• The company may choose to release information gradually rather than in a single announcement