There have been several near misses in recent years. Eg https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis
Large city, in this market, is defined as population greater than 0.5million.
Run out of water, in this market, is defined by credible media reports of a city turning off the mains and people having to queue for a water ration.
The time of the market has been chosen to give Equal weighting to northern and southern hemispheres. Remember that Manifold returns long term manna bets to you as loans, so your manna will not be tied up for long.
Cases where this is due to pollution or pipe failure will not be considered for market resolution.
1,000People are also trading
@BlitzEver bring your best case for a yes resolution to the comment section then. Explain it in a way I can digest it. Use the market criteria and other resources
@Eliza I heard about Richmond, Virginia, but it was during the January blizzard (power outage). Therefore, I don't know if it counts. Otherwise, this will resolve as NO
@PaperBoy closing this market now since it seems some ppl think it should resolve so further trading would be trading on the potential mod resolution (will add it to queue)
@Ziddletwix and i am pretty confident @CromlynGames is long inactive so won't be back to resolve it but explicitly pinging them just in case
Since the criteria is, “credible media reports of a city turning off the mains and people having to queue for a water ration.” I think this is a YES and has been for a while but the creator is inactive.
Via Deep research. I think this resolves yes.
Cities Facing Severe Water Shortages (2022–2024)
Mexico City, Mexico (2023–2024)
Residents fill plastic barrels from a water tanker truck in Mexico City’s Iztapalapa borough amid severe shortages (March 2024). One of the world’s largest cities, Mexico City endured a severe water crisis in late 2023 and early 2024 after several years of unusually low rainfall . Reservoirs supplying the metropolitan area fell to “unprecedented” low levels, and many residents went days or weeks without running water, especially in poorer neighborhoods . Long lines formed for emergency water deliveries – people with buckets and barrels queued at government tankers to collect essential water for drinking and washing . Frustration grew as some communities even staged protests over the shortages, while officials blamed climate change and chaotic urban growth for outstripping the aging infrastructure . By mid-2024 the summer rains began to replenish supplies, but the crisis underscored the capital’s chronic water stress and the need for sustainable water management solutions .
Monterrey, Mexico (2022)
Northern Mexico’s industrial hub Monterrey (metro population ~5 million) experienced an extreme water shortage in 2022 due to a historic drought. By mid-year, two of the three dams supplying the city had reached record lows – one reservoir dropped to just 7% and eventually below 1% of capacity – prompting Nuevo León state to declare an emergency . Authorities imposed strict water rationing, cutting tap service for hours or days at a time. Many outlying neighborhoods went months with dry taps, forcing residents to buy water or depend on communal cisterns and tanker deliveries . In the suburb of García, for example, families lined up at public water tanks as piped supply ran out, and local stores even rationed bottled water sales (two 10‑liter bottles per family per day) to prevent panic hoarding . The crisis sparked unrest – at one point protesters sabotaged a pipeline carrying water to Monterrey – and emergency transfers of water from other regions were organized . Late summer rains in September 2022 brought partial relief; officials managed to restore 24-hour urban water service by October, though some outer communities still faced intermittent outages, and longer-term water security in Monterrey remains a concern .
Montevideo, Uruguay (2023)
Uruguay’s capital Montevideo nearly ran out of water in mid-2023 as the country grappled with its worst drought in 74 years . The city’s two main freshwater reservoirs dwindled to only a few percent of their capacity, causing tap water to turn brackish when authorities began mixing in saltwater from the Río de la Plata estuary to extend supplies . In June 2023 the government declared a water emergency: it guaranteed supplies to hospitals and critical facilities and waived taxes on bottled water, even distributing 2 liters of bottled water per day to each vulnerable resident in the metro area . Residents endured weeks of salty, poor-quality tap water, and many queued for bottled water handouts or paid high prices for drinking water as the crisis peaked . Fortunately, heavy rainfall in late July and August refilled the reservoirs and ended the immediate shortage . The emergency prompted Uruguayan authorities to accelerate long-delayed water infrastructure projects (such as developing a new reservoir) and to improve drought preparedness, since reliance on a few rain-fed reservoirs had left the capital vulnerable .
Johannesburg, South Africa (2023)
Johannesburg, South Africa’s largest city, was gripped by a drastic water shortage in late 2023 – despite no official drought declaration – due to infrastructure failures and heatwaves. Years of poor maintenance and under-investment in the water system, combined with abnormally hot, dry weather, led to a collapse in supply capacity . By October 2023, municipal reservoirs were down to about 30% of capacity, and many areas experienced rolling outages dubbed “watershedding” (analogous to electricity load-shedding) . Millions of residents saw their taps periodically run dry; even affluent suburbs had to line up at municipal tanker trucks to collect water for cooking and bathing . The city deployed fleets of tankers as a lifeline , but long queues and water rationing schedules became the norm in affected districts. Public anger mounted as people questioned how a major metropolis could run out of water, spurring officials to urge conservation and fast-track fixes to leaking pipes and pumps . As of early 2024, intermittent restrictions continued in some Johannesburg neighborhoods, and the crisis was a key issue pressuring the government to rehabilitate the aging water infrastructure .
Bengaluru (Bangalore), India (2024)
A girl carries a water pot after filling it from a municipal tanker during Bengaluru’s water crisis (March 2024). In the spring of 2024, the Indian tech megacity Bengaluru (population ~13 million) faced an acute water shortage when an unusually hot, dry February–March led to surging demand and dwindling supplies . The city’s reservoirs and groundwater reserves could not keep pace with needs, and the existing pipeline network – strained by decades of explosive growth – left many households with little or no running water for days at a time . Residents increasingly relied on private water tanker trucks to deliver essential water. By March 2024 over 1,600 tankers were supplying neighborhoods across Bengaluru, but deliveries became infrequent (sometimes only once every week or two), and water prices soared as tanker operators cashed in on desperation . In response, the government intervened by temporarily requisitioning private tankers and even deploying “water war rooms” to manage distribution . Still, the crisis sparked outrage – some residents threatened to boycott elections in protest – and highlighted the city’s precarious water situation . The arrival of monsoon rains by June 2024 brought temporary relief, but Bengaluru officials continue to pursue long-term measures (from new reservoirs to wastewater recycling) to secure the city’s future water needs.
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (2023)
Residents in Bishkek collect water from a tanker after supply cuts left parts of the city dry (June 2023). The capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, was hit by severe water shortages in the early summer of 2023 when an unexpected cool spring meant mountain glaciers didn’t melt in time, drastically reducing river flows that feed the city . This supply shortfall quickly exposed the limits of Bishkek’s aging Soviet-era water infrastructure, which was designed for about 600,000 people even though the city now exceeds 1 million in population . In May–June 2023 authorities imposed strict rationing, shutting off piped water during daytime hours in many districts . Residents in peripheral neighborhoods went days without water and had to rely on emergency tanker deliveries. Often the water trucks brought murky, non-potable water – but desperate residents still lined up with bottles and buckets, only to find the supply would run out before everyone was served . The crisis led to public demonstrations (one group of frustrated residents even blocked a major road) to demand action . In response, city officials scrambled to reconfigure the network and promised to restore regular service within weeks , while the national government pledged investments to expand reservoirs and modernize the distribution system. By mid-July 2023, glacial meltwater and emergency efforts gradually improved the situation, but Bishkek’s ordeal underscored the danger of climate variability combined with outdated infrastructure .
Mexico City is at risk of running out of water: https://cnn.it/49mZJi6
This is also a helpful resource: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-42982959