A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one
19
30
370
2025
30%
chance

A colony is defined as 3+ people present on the surface staying for over a year. This can be multiple individuals in shifts as long as at least 3 people are present at a time.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ30 NO

I'd be inclined to vote Yes, but it turns out that you can get quite short stays on Mars, leaving almost immediately after you've arrived. I expect that to happen first for Mars. Even somewhat longer stays such as half a year, you could fit in a single return window, at the cost of somewhat long transfer times. So humans on Mars aren't actually forced to stay a year on the surface, as I initially thought.