A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one
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A colony is defined as 3+ people present on the surface staying for over a year. This can be multiple individuals in shifts as long as at least 3 people are present at a time.

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I'd be inclined to vote Yes, but it turns out that you can get quite short stays on Mars, leaving almost immediately after you've arrived. I expect that to happen first for Mars. Even somewhat longer stays such as half a year, you could fit in a single return window, at the cost of somewhat long transfer times. So humans on Mars aren't actually forced to stay a year on the surface, as I initially thought.