From the comments, it sounds like Russia just has to claim they have a vaccine for any cancer and "launch" it, but there's no condition on their vaccine 1) working, or 2) being novel?

@AndrewBrown You can say this! It is just about launching.

I AM LEARNING PREDICTION MARKETS

@NikhilK It is cool!

@NikhilK We all are

Is the question just "will Russia launch a vaccine that it claims will reduce the risk of (some) cancer(s)"? If Russia launches a vaccine with that claim, but western media reports that it is a known vaccine (e.g. HPV) or even just a placebo, will this still resolve to YES?

@jesyspa Yes, Russia has to announce officially.

@CreativeCulture But will the other cases, when it's presumably not actually a vaccine for cancer despite the claims, resolve to YES?

@jesyspa Not just a claim, it should be a Vaccine Launch.

@CreativeCulture but how will we know they're telling the truth? not a regime renowned for its honesty

@Lorelai It depends on the patients as well. Like if they are exporting and other countries are accepting.

@CreativeCulture Russia's sanctioned tho

@Lorelai Russia has allied with many countries except western world.

@CreativeCulture the countries that still trade with russia as it commits a literal genocide have their own problems with lack of transparency, morality, and authoritarianism so I wouldn't trust their claims either. russia has deep pockets.

@Lorelai Russia has allied with India. India won't support such fake vaccine, if it is true.

@CreativeCulture I personally don't know enough about the Indian healthcare system to contest this claim tbh but on the surface sounds problematic re: fake cancer treatments there too

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-28/medicine-gets-political-in-india-as-modi-supports-ayurveda-resurgence?embedded-checkout=true

@Lorelai It is not fake. Ayurveda has an impact. Although it is slow, but it is impactful.

@CreativeCulture It's not clear to me what the resolution conditions are, so I don't think I'll be trading on this.

@CreativeCulture lol ok

@jesyspa Condition is simple! If Russia launches the vaccine, then done!

Lol like there's a Russian vaccine for cancer. Putin can say whatever he wants, doesn't make it true (often the opposite).

As I wrote in another comment: in a country where authorities lie, everyone plagiarizes their dissertation, and nobody can check the efficacy of any vaccine, I'm guessing the chance of there actually being a cancer vaccine is about 0.00000000001%

@Lorelai That is what I am trying to understand from people's point of view.

Which vaccine for cancer? HPV?

@Snarflak Here's the article.

https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/putin-says-russia-is-close-to-creating-cancer-vaccines/article67846931.ece

@CreativeCulture So how does the bet resolve, then?

@Snarflak if they launch the vaccine before the end of 2024 and you bet on "Yes", you will win.

@CreativeCulture So it's just any vaccine for any type of cancer, and it doesn't even have to work? You should make that clear in the description of the question, instead of just the comments.

@CreativeCulture How will we know if they launch "the vaccine", though? Which vaccine? Which cancer?

@Snarflak https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/putin-says-russia-is-close-to-creating-cancer-vaccines/article67846931.ece#:~:text=Mr.,Moscow%20forum%20on%20future%20technologies.

@CreativeCulture

Putin did not specify which types of cancer the proposed vaccines would target, nor how

OK. Not gonna bet on that, then.

@Snarflak No problem! We will come up with better prediction markets very soon.