Will officials determine that the Oct 4, 2025 fire at Judge Diane Goodstein’s home was intentionally set (arson)?
3
1kṀ170
Jan 1
56%
chance

Resolves YES if SLED, the fire marshal, or a court-backed finding states the fire was intentionally set (arson/incendiary), or a defendant is convicted or admits in court to setting it. Resolves NO if an official report identifies an accidental cause. If still “undetermined” or no authoritative finding by close, resolve N/A. Scope: this specific fire only. Primary sources: SLED/fire-marshal reports, court records; or major outlets quoting them. https://apnews.com/article/judge-house-fire-diane-goodstein-south-carolina-0ca7558e66215dc5ec23683dc861b8ae

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Based on previous news articles about fire, usually they find and point out arson fairly quickly. So I feel like the market should be below 50% but maybe they are keeping it close for prosecution reasons?

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