Update 2025-10-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve the market early despite a user request, as the investigation is still described as ongoing. The market will wait for the investigation to conclude, which may take additional time for lab tests or other investigative procedures.
1,000🏅 Top traders
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| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ2 |
@traders i resolved this NO because we haven't gotten the promised update by SLED since October. I have little to no interest to reach out to them and get an update.
If we get the report after all and it's arson I'll pay all YES holders from my own Mana what they'd have won.
@AlexanderTheGreater "I resolved this NO because I don't know the answer and can't be bothered to find out" might be the worst resolution I've ever seen on this website
@ChurlishGambit well, I've done research on publicly available sources. I'm not gonna turn into an investigative journalist over this
@AlexanderTheGreater Sending an email isn't "turning into an investigative journalist." Resolving NO, despite NOT KNOWING THE ANSWER, is completely counter to the whole point of a prediction market. Don't make them if you lack the patience to wait for the correct information.
@ChurlishGambit This is kind of an overreaction, don't you think? If you want, you could even send the email.
@AlexanderTheGreater The last news about this was three weeks ago where they reported that there was no evidence of arson. There does not appear to be any further investigation. Given the circumstances, would you be willing to resolve this market now?
@Balasar sorry, I think it's safer to wait longer. The investigation was still described as ongoing. I think it's reasonable to assume that there is a non-zero chance the investigation has still not concluded, especially if they were to run lab tests which might take a while.
Husband is a former Democratic South Carolina Senator and both are Jewish: https://www.sccourts.org/courts/trial-courts/circuit-court/judges/diane-schafer-goodstein/