The REAL ID Act, enacted in 2005, establishes minimum security standards for state-issued driver's licenses and identification cards. The enforcement deadline has been postponed multiple times, with the current deadline set for May 7, 2025. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by May 7, 2025, the Department of Homeland Security announces a further postponement of the REAL ID enforcement deadline. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'. Source: TSA Press Release
To clarify, for the market to resolve to "Yes", there needs to be an explicit postponement as they've done in the past issued by either DHS/TSA of the REAL ID enforcement deadline made on or before May 7, 2025, that sets a new target enforcement deadline further in the future. Anything less than that, the market will resolve to "No".
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Seems like it won't be fully enforced right away, but I don't think this counts as a postponement: https://www.startribune.com/homeland-security-chief-says-travelers-with-no-real-id-can-fly-for-now-but-with-likely-extra-steps/601345749.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I think this absolutely counts as a postponement. Nothing has changed since yesterday or the year before etc.
“Extra scrutiny” just means “the whim of whatever TSA agent you get,” just as it always has.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 This seems to be about the same as when you try to fly without an ID. I remember a few years ago I had to fly without an ID after I lost my wallet - they redirected me to a different line where I had to fill out some forms, they asked me some security questions, gave me a patdown, and then they let me through.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yeah, agreed, this market has a strict definition for a yes resolution. It requires "explicit postponement" with "new target enforcement deadline" in order to resolve yes.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Failure to enforce = fundamentally “the same” as postponement.
@moderators please reconsider whether political “spin” resulting in murky uncertainty in our betting markets should be considered valid criteria as opposed to actual outcomes.
@SusanneinFrance The market creator has been extremely specific with his resolution definition and it is not anything close to what you would wish it to be, nor is your dissatisfaction with his definition of postponement a reason for mods to get involved. That's not really how manifold works
@SusanneinFrance this outcome was anticipated and discussed. https://manifold.markets/CraigCohen/real-id-travel-requirement-postpone#jf7ox6l6lu
does the "phased enforcement" announcement from last September count as "postponed enforcement"? It appears travelers may be delayed but not necessarily denied boarding. https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/09/12/tsa-announces-proposed-rule-provide-necessary-flexibility-federal
@MichaelEdgar The spirit of the market has seemed to me like it's about whether the historical delays that have been happening since the 2000's will continue, not whether the policy will have phases once it begins.
@Panfilo assuming the market creator agrees, this market is a good place to arb, I think: https://manifold.markets/CollectedOverSpread/will-real-idcompliant-identificatio?r=TWljaGFlbEVkZ2Fy